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This year has been particularly challenging for consensus positioning and beliefs – “it’s transitory to soft landing” now being hit by...

As widely anticipated, the US FOMC left policy unchanged at 5.5% at the September meeting. However, the dot plot was marked up again by...

A key question our friend Dave Dredge at Convex Strategies often asks policy officials in Japan about extreme measures (ZIRP, QE, YCC...

I Just can’t get enough I Just can’t get enough The markets slip and slide when we end the dove And I just can’t seem to get enough...

As we have noted recently 2023 has been the year of the contras where swings in major macro trends have caught consensus positioning and...

In August we noted that a key characteristic of 2023 has been swings in the prevailing bias on major macro trends that have caught...

One of the key characteristics of 2023 has been swings in the prevailing bias on major macro trends that have caught consensus...

Long end yields have recently broken to new cycle highs. From our perch, as we noted earlier this month, this likely reflects a few key...

The Economist Cover on August 29th, 2015, was titled the “Great Fall of China.” While that was not quite the trough in that episode or...

Earlier this week we suggested that the odds of a soft landing remain low. There have been only 2 out of 12 episodes since 1957. The most...