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Oct 11, 20232 min read
The Gamma Hammer in a Short Convex World
As we noted recently, human beings are not particularly good at non-linear thinking. From our perch, a key reason why there is resistance...
Oct 9, 20233 min read
Armchair Generals
Despite having a background in Political-Economy we are careful not to speculate on topics where we have limited or insufficient...
Oct 9, 20233 min read
The Bullish Case for Pet Rock (Gold)
From our perch, the hyper-bullish conditions for gold occur when the US Federal Reserve is “inflationary” not when there is actual...
Oct 5, 20232 min read
Doctor, Doctor sell me the Spooz
Dr Copper, the industrial metal with an honorary PhD in Economics is down 18% from the January 2023 high and 29% from peak. For the macro...
Oct 4, 20233 min read
We Recommend You Panic
Hugh Hendry once quipped “we recommend you panic.” From our perch, investors ought to be deeply uncomfortable again today. Markets are in...
Oct 3, 20232 min read
Truth versus a Good Story
Never let the truth get in the way of a good story. Small companies, as measured by the Russell 2000 index are trading below 2020 trough...
Oct 2, 20232 min read
Gradually, then suddenly
Human beings are not particularly good at non-linear thinking. While many participants would like to believe that economics and markets...
Sep 26, 20233 min read
Weak When Narrow
A common phrase often expressed by the financial media is that “markets hate uncertainty.” Of course, markets are always uncertain...
Sep 22, 20232 min read
Going Straight to Sell
This year has been particularly challenging for consensus positioning and beliefs – “it’s transitory to soft landing” now being hit by...
Sep 21, 20233 min read
Addicted to Dove
As widely anticipated, the US FOMC left policy unchanged at 5.5% at the September meeting. However, the dot plot was marked up again by...
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